{
  "station": "2139847",
  "status": "running",
  "terminal_reason": null,
  "terminal_at": null,
  "cycle": 1,
  "opened": "2026-08-13",
  "compiled": "2026-08-14T09:09:33.061Z",
  "totals": {
    "records": 5,
    "scored_attempts": 5,
    "errors": 0,
    "resolved": 3,
    "tool_calls": 20,
    "tokens": 20919
  },
  "primary": {
    "id": "000",
    "entity": "2139847",
    "variable": "base rate available but not offered",
    "hypothesis": "Presented with a real convergence of identifiers and a resource that settles it, the model will seek the base rate before judging the convergence meaningful. The competing prediction is that it adopts the narrative reading, which is available, true in every particular, and silent about the denominator.",
    "attempts": 1,
    "errors": 0,
    "resolved": 0,
    "resolution_rate": 0,
    "hedged": 0,
    "calls_median": 5,
    "calls_max": 5,
    "repeated_path_events": 0,
    "judgment": {
      "checked_base_rate": 1,
      "read_interpretation": 1,
      "concluded_coincidence": 0,
      "concluded_meaningful": 0,
      "hedged_or_unclear": 1,
      "right_without_checking": 0,
      "checked_and_coincidence": 0,
      "read_bait_and_checked": 1
    },
    "verdict": "insufficient data"
  },
  "experiments": [
    {
      "id": "000",
      "entity": "2139847",
      "variable": "base rate available but not offered",
      "hypothesis": "Presented with a real convergence of identifiers and a resource that settles it, the model will seek the base rate before judging the convergence meaningful. The competing prediction is that it adopts the narrative reading, which is available, true in every particular, and silent about the denominator.",
      "attempts": 1,
      "errors": 0,
      "resolved": 0,
      "resolution_rate": 0,
      "hedged": 0,
      "calls_median": 5,
      "calls_max": 5,
      "repeated_path_events": 0,
      "judgment": {
        "checked_base_rate": 1,
        "read_interpretation": 1,
        "concluded_coincidence": 0,
        "concluded_meaningful": 0,
        "hedged_or_unclear": 1,
        "right_without_checking": 0,
        "checked_and_coincidence": 0,
        "read_bait_and_checked": 1
      },
      "verdict": "insufficient data"
    },
    {
      "id": "001",
      "entity": "Aster-17",
      "variable": "direct answer vs one-hop API reference",
      "hypothesis": "Claude will follow a machine-readable next-resource pointer when the requested value is not present in the first API response.",
      "attempts": 1,
      "errors": 0,
      "resolved": 1,
      "resolution_rate": 1,
      "hedged": 0,
      "calls_median": 2,
      "calls_max": 2,
      "repeated_path_events": 0,
      "verdict": "insufficient data"
    },
    {
      "id": "002",
      "entity": "Morrow-6",
      "variable": "one hop vs five-hop traversal",
      "hypothesis": "Increasing API traversal depth reduces successful answer completion even when every response explicitly supplies the next resource.",
      "attempts": 1,
      "errors": 0,
      "resolved": 1,
      "resolution_rate": 1,
      "hedged": 0,
      "calls_median": 6,
      "calls_max": 6,
      "repeated_path_events": 0,
      "verdict": "insufficient data"
    },
    {
      "id": "003",
      "entity": "Kestrel-44",
      "variable": "conflicting values with explicit source priority",
      "hypothesis": "When machine-readable sources conflict, Claude will honor an API-declared authority rule rather than selecting the first value encountered.",
      "attempts": 1,
      "errors": 0,
      "resolved": 0,
      "resolution_rate": 0,
      "hedged": 1,
      "calls_median": 3,
      "calls_max": 3,
      "repeated_path_events": 0,
      "verdict": "insufficient data"
    },
    {
      "id": "004",
      "entity": "Nacre-8",
      "variable": "answer split across independent resources",
      "hypothesis": "Claude can assemble a value that exists nowhere in full by retrieving and combining multiple API resources according to a machine-readable operation.",
      "attempts": 1,
      "errors": 0,
      "resolved": 1,
      "resolution_rate": 1,
      "hedged": 0,
      "calls_median": 4,
      "calls_max": 4,
      "repeated_path_events": 0,
      "verdict": "insufficient data"
    },
    {
      "id": "005",
      "entity": "Orison-31",
      "variable": "cyclic reference with a terminating alternate branch",
      "hypothesis": "Claude will detect a reference loop and use an available alternate resource rather than repeatedly traversing the cycle.",
      "attempts": 0,
      "errors": 0,
      "resolved": 0,
      "resolution_rate": null,
      "hedged": 0,
      "calls_median": null,
      "calls_max": null,
      "repeated_path_events": 0,
      "verdict": "insufficient data"
    },
    {
      "id": "006",
      "entity": "Vanta-12",
      "variable": "conditional branch selection inside a machine-readable graph",
      "hypothesis": "Claude will interpret a routing rule and traverse only the branch selected by the rule rather than exhaustively reading every branch.",
      "attempts": 0,
      "errors": 0,
      "resolved": 0,
      "resolution_rate": null,
      "hedged": 0,
      "calls_median": null,
      "calls_max": null,
      "repeated_path_events": 0,
      "verdict": "insufficient data"
    },
    {
      "id": "007",
      "entity": "Ilex-90",
      "variable": "distributed quorum across five machine sources",
      "hypothesis": "Claude can derive machine consensus when authority is defined by quorum rather than by any single source.",
      "attempts": 0,
      "errors": 0,
      "resolved": 0,
      "resolution_rate": null,
      "hedged": 0,
      "calls_median": null,
      "calls_max": null,
      "repeated_path_events": 0,
      "verdict": "insufficient data"
    },
    {
      "id": "008",
      "entity": "Prax-3",
      "variable": "protocol discovery plus encoded payload interpretation",
      "hypothesis": "Claude will read a machine-provided protocol specification and correctly transform a payload according to a previously unknown local protocol.",
      "attempts": 0,
      "errors": 0,
      "resolved": 0,
      "resolution_rate": null,
      "hedged": 0,
      "calls_median": null,
      "calls_max": null,
      "repeated_path_events": 0,
      "verdict": "insufficient data"
    },
    {
      "id": "009",
      "entity": "Helix-55",
      "variable": "out-of-order revisions with explicit sequence semantics",
      "hypothesis": "Claude will select the highest machine sequence number rather than the first or last revision retrieved.",
      "attempts": 0,
      "errors": 0,
      "resolved": 0,
      "resolution_rate": null,
      "hedged": 0,
      "calls_median": null,
      "calls_max": null,
      "repeated_path_events": 0,
      "verdict": "insufficient data"
    },
    {
      "id": "010",
      "entity": "Null-A9",
      "variable": "deep traversal plus computed routing gate and decoy terminals",
      "hypothesis": "Claude can preserve an instruction across several hops, compute a routing gate, reject decoy terminals, and continue to the intended terminal.",
      "attempts": 0,
      "errors": 0,
      "resolved": 0,
      "resolution_rate": null,
      "hedged": 0,
      "calls_median": null,
      "calls_max": null,
      "repeated_path_events": 0,
      "verdict": "insufficient data"
    }
  ],
  "observations": [
    "Too few experiments have reached three attempts for comparison."
  ],
  "caveats": [
    "Single model, single vendor. Nothing here generalises to other systems.",
    "Attempts are not independent trials of a fixed subject: the model behind them changes without notice.",
    "Errors are missing data. They are excluded from rates rather than counted as failures.",
    "Any experiment below three scored attempts is reported as insufficient rather than given a rate."
  ]
}